A lucky bettor in Colorado stands to gain much from the World Series thanks to the mistake of an opponent.
World Series on April 13, A Week Into MLB
A gambler in Colorado wagered $50 on the Houston Astros to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series with BetMGM on April 13, a week into the Major League Baseball season.
The odds on that bet were 2,500-1. Seven months later, in the World Series, the Astros and the Phillies are playing for the bettor’s $125,000.
The gambler can guarantee a profit by simultaneously putting a “hedge” bet on the underdog Phillies. For example, if you bet $10,000 on Philadelphia at the current series price of +160, you’d gain $15,950 if the Phillies won, and $115,000 if the Astros did.
The customer gave BetMGM some remarks but refused to be interviewed.
For the better, “April through ‘Philtober’ has been a bizarre roller coaster ride of living and dying with the Phillies. Congratulations to the Astros for finishing strong and commiserations to the Dodgers for their customary lack of resolve.
Bettors who followed up with “I’m not hedging” were considered unwise.
Because the odds on the wager were higher than they should have been, the bettor is in for a World Series sweat that might be more rewarding than it should have been. The chances of the Astros defeating the Phillies in the World Series should have been closer to 250-1, if not lower.
Months in advance, the simplest approach to generate odds on the precise winner of a World Series is to multiply the chances of the projected champion winning the World Series by the odds of the opposing team winning the pennant.
Probability Of a World Series Victory by The Houston Astros
The odds of the Astros winning the World Series were 10 to 1, while the odds of the Phillies winning the National League were also at 10 to 1 despite their sluggish start.
When calculated using standard procedures, the chances would have been closer to 100 to 1, rather than 2,500 to 2. Longer odds than 2,500-1 are possible with other strategies. The odds at BetMGM for the Texas Rangers to defeat the Miami Marlins in the World Series were equivalent to this figure (2,500-1).
Jason Scott, the vice president of trading at Bet MGM, admitted to ESPN that the company made a mistake in the process of determining the odds by saying, in good humor, “We were maybe a little too aggressive on them.”
In the world of betting, the concept of “egregious odds mistakes,” sometimes known as “palpable errors,” may be a contentious and often debated subject.
Mistakes in data input or typographical errors may lead to incorrect lines being posted by sportsbooks, which can occasionally turn a heavy favorite into an underdog, for example.
Bookmakers Acknowledge Gross Odds Mistakes
The majority of the time, sportsbooks will add caveats for particularly severe odds mistakes, and in the past, they have battled against having to pay out on bets placed on incorrect lines. On the other hand, Scott did not indicate that BetMGM would take that course of action.
BetMGM advertised the 2,500-1 odds over two weeks, but they only accepted six wagers on the precise World Series result of the Astros defeating the Phillies.
According to Scott, “approximately 90%” of the entire amount wagered on the exaggerated odds was comprised of wagers of exactly $50 each.
To tell you the truth, I’m more concerned about Mattress Mack defeating us than I am about him winning,” stated Scott.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, the owner of a furniture shop in Houston, is renowned for placing large bets to reduce the risk associated with various promotions.
McIngvale recently put a $2 million bet with BetMGM on the Houston Astros to win the World Series. McIngvale has around ten million dollars on the line with the Astros’ performance in the World Series, and he stands to win up to seventy-five million dollars if the Astros win.
Because he’ll need it: After making wagers totaling seven figures back in June, McIngvale made an offer to consumers of his shop Gallery Furniture that if the Houston Astros were to win the World Series, he would double the amount of money that would be refunded to them.
Finishing Line
About the responsibility that was incurred as a result of McIngvale’s wager on the Astros, Scott said, “It’s not nice, but we can deal with it.”
BetMGM has announced that it will be sending a bettor from Colorado to Game 1 of the World Series, which will be held in Houston on Friday.